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US CFTC Requests Comment on Listing Compute Derivatives Contracts as AI Computing Power Emerges as a Regulated Commodity Class

US CFTC Requests Comment on Listing Compute Derivatives Contracts as AI Computing Power Emerges as a Regulated Commodity Class

On 19 August 2026, the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission issued a request for comment on compute derivatives.1 The request was published in the Federal Register on 21 August 2026.2 It concerns derivatives contracts referencing the price of access to computing power. Compute is the processing power used by the large language models at the centre of the artificial intelligence economy. The US CFTC cites estimates that installed compute implies a gross service flow of US$430 billion to US$1.3 trillion per year.3 That range represents approximately 1.4 to 4.0 per cent of US GDP. The request examines cash market structure, manipulation risk, customer protection and perpetual compute futures. It engages the designated contract market Core Principles under the Commodity Exchange Act.4 Comments must be received by 20 October 2026. Chairman Michael S. Selig has described compute as the commodity of the intelligence economy. The request is the first step towards US regulated compute futures markets.

CFTC Chairman's Views on Compute Derivatives

"America cannot win the AI race without a robust derivatives market for compute. Just as American markets helped establish the gold standard for trading the commodities that powered the industrial economy, we will do the same for the commodity that will power the intelligence economy. This request for comment is the first step toward establishing clear rules of the road for American compute markets," said Chairman Michael S. Selig.1

The Chairman’s views are consistent with the White House AI Action Plan of July 2025, ‘‘whoever has the largest AI ecosystem will set global AI standards and reap broad economic and military benefits. . . . it is imperative that the United States and its allies win this race.’’ which recommended improving the financial market for compute, and Executive Order 14179 on removing barriers to American AI leadership.5

What Would Underlie A Compute Future?

The US CFTC has outlined that the commodity underlying a compute futures contract would typically mean access to rented compute capacity from hardware the purchaser does not own, such as the hourly rental price of compute from a B200 chip, though the underlier may alternatively be access to a stated volume of LLM inference tokens.6 It preliminarily expects the majority of compute derivatives initially to be cash settled, given the infrastructure challenges of physical delivery, and is of the view that the price would be likely to be derived from a bundle of factors covering the provider, region and contract structure.7

The US CFTC states that compute may not yet have certain characteristics of commodities that typically underlie a derivatives market, including fungibility, standardisation and sufficient liquidity.8 Price formation occurs primarily in non-transparent bilateral transactions. Dominant market participants may wield significant pricing power that may lead to potential manipulation and preferential pricing arrangements. The notice draws the historical parallel to electricity, a commodity that cannot be stored and must be consumed as needed, whose derivatives markets nonetheless matured.9

The US CFTC uses “compute” to refer broadly to access to computing power, particularly the processing capacity used for AI and large language models. It treats compute as an increasingly scarce, capital-intensive input to the AI economy. In principle, compute derivative allows a market participant to hedge, manage or take exposure to future movements in the cost of computing resources without necessarily owning the underlying infrastructure.

The Manipulation Issue

The main issues are around Core Principle 3, which allows a designated contract market to list only contracts not readily susceptible to manipulation and the Appendix C Guidance on cash settlement price reliability.10 The US CFTC has requested comment as to what features a contract cash settling to an index calculated over predominantly bilateral and privately priced transactions would need to satisfy that standard. It also asks directly whether protections exist to prevent a compute capacity provider from manipulating a settlement index by adjusting a posted rate, directing capacity onto or away from venues whose transactions feed the index, or declining to execute transactions during the observation window.11

The question outlined above identifies the structural difficulty. In relation to compute, the parties best positioned to influence the reference price are the same concentrated group that supplies the capacity and administers the posted rates from which any index would be computed. The US CFTC is requesting comment as to whether that differs from other commodity underliers. The answer to be considered is that the concentration is more acute than in almost any commodity the agency has previously overseen. The viability of the entire product class may depend on whether an index methodology can be put in place that withstands influence from the providers contributing its price data.

Customer Protection in the Broader International Context

The US CFTC seeks comments on what anti-money laundering and know your customer concerns may arise in compute markets, and what challenges futures commission merchants and other intermediaries would face in building compliance programmes for compute futures.12 It also asks what disclosure considerations arise from offering a contract settling against "a geopolitically sensitive commodity", including to retail participants, and how those differ from commodities such as oil.13 Compute capacity underlies export control regimes, national security review and semiconductor trade policy in a way agricultural and energy commodities do not. A compute futures price would embed geopolitical policy risk as a first order settlement input and the US CFTC is asking whether retail participation in such a product should be subject to particular regulatory measures.

Perpetual Compute Futures

The US CFTC asks whether perpetual compute futures would offer advantages over traditional fixed date contracts, whether they would provide commercial risk management features existing products cannot, and what unique risks or safeguards they would entail.14 The inclusion of perpetual contract structures connects this request to the listing of the first bitcoin perpetual futures contracts on US CFTC regulated exchanges and its engagement on perpetuals for non-crypto assets. The funding rate mechanism which originated in offshore crypto venues is now being contemplated as the market structure for the commodity underpinning artificial intelligence, which is an indication of crypto market structure migrating into the regulated mainstream.

Process And Next Steps

The CFTC’s Request for Comment on the Listing of Compute Derivatives Contracts was issued on 19 August 2026 and submissions and comments must be received by 20 October 2026, referencing RIN 3038-AF77, with submissions through Regulations.gov encouraged.15 The US CFTC is particularly looking for empirical and data driven comments but also seeks comment on all aspects of compute markets, including issues arising from swap execution facilities listing contracts settling to the price of compute.16

This CFTC Request for Comment and the consultation responses will be a factor in determining how the US CFTC assesses any compute contract submission against Core Principles 3, 4 and 5 and the Appendix C Guidance. Compute providers, AI developers, data centre operators and prospective index administrators have a sixty day window to comment on and potentially influence the standards which apply to their activities.

Footnotes

  1. US Commodity Futures Trading Commission, "CFTC Requests Comment on the Listing of Compute Derivatives Contracts", press release, 19 August 2026, available at www.cftc.gov.
  2. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, "Request for Comment on the Listing of Compute Derivatives Contracts", 91 FR 54259, 21 August 2026, RIN 3038-AF77, 17 CFR Parts 1 and 38.
  3. Federico M. Bandi, "(Early) AI Compute Asset Pricing", 1 July 2026, cited at 91 FR 54260, footnote 5.
  4. Commodity Exchange Act sections 3, 5(d) and 5c(c), 7 USC 5, 7(d) and 7a-2(c); 17 CFR Part 38 and Appendices B and C.
  5. The White House, "Winning the Race: America’s AI Action Plan", 23 July 2025, and Executive Order 14179, "Removing Barriers to American Leadership in Artificial Intelligence", 90 FR 8741, 31 January 2025, both cited at 91 FR 54262.
  6. 91 FR 54262 (the underlying commodity, including rented compute capacity and LLM inference tokens).
  7. 91 FR 54261 to 54262 (expected cash settlement of compute derivatives and pricing factors).
  8. 91 FR 54262 (fungibility, standardisation and liquidity of compute).
  9. 91 FR 54262, footnote 45 (drawing the comparison to electric energy, which cannot be stored).
  10. Commodity Exchange Act section 5(d)(3), 7 USC 7(d)(3); 17 CFR Part 38, Appendix C; and question 2(a) of the request, 91 FR 54263.
  11. Question 2(b) of the request, 91 FR 54263.
  12. Question 3(a) of the request, 91 FR 54264.
  13. Question 3(b) of the request, 91 FR 54264.
  14. Questions 4(a) and 4(b) of the request, 91 FR 54264.
  15. 91 FR 54259 to 54260 (dates and methods for the submission of comments).
  16. Section III of the request, 91 FR 54264; swap execution facility issues at 91 FR 54260, footnote 6.